The Astros are shaking off a few bumps and bruises down in Kissimmee. The most notable injury belongs to Héctor Giménez, who will undergo surgery next week to repair a torn right labrum. He'll probably miss the whole year, but Giménez, 24, should be OK in the long run. He hit very well in Venezuela this winter, but was facing an uphill battle to claim the backup catcher spot over Humberto Quintero. The silver lining is that the Astros can keep Giménez in the organization by placing him on the 60-day DL. Giménez was out of options, and would have faced the waiver wire if he didn't make the ballclub.

Brad Ausmus' throwing shoulder also is hurting, and he received a cortisone shot early this week. He says he should be fine, but he also claimed he couldn't lift his arm over his head during the winter. Maybe he's been hanging out with Jeff Bagwell to much ...

Troy Patton tripped over a sprinkler head and twisted his left ankle. Nice going, Patty. He should be OK, but I hate for him to miss any time showing off his stuff to Rocket and Nolan and all the Astros brass.

Richard Justice had a good column about Jason Lane in today's Chronicle. Lane appears to be a nice guy, well-liked among Astros players and staff, but the odds are not in his favor this spring. I suppose there's still unrealized potential there, but for the most part, I get the feeling that he's had basically a year and a half to prove he's an adequate corner outfielder, and he hasn't really done so. His career line is .252/.324/.475, and I believe he is capable of putting up a .270/.360/.525 line. But he's equally capable of putting up another .220/.320/.400 year.

Is there any way we can keep Hidalgo and Lane? So what if they're not ideal pinch-hitters? They're both SO much better than Palmeiro. How about a bench of Lamb, Quintero, Loretta, Bruntlett, Lane and Hidalgo? Not bad at all.

What's the deal with NL Central center fielders? Bill Hall, Alfonso Soriano and Chris Burke are all being handed starting CF jobs this year. No question Hall and Soriano are going to outslug Burke, but who'll be the best defender out there? I'm going to say they'll all be in the bottom half of the league in defense, but I bet Burke can play the best of the trio.

I read an interesting article by Dayn Perry over at Fox Sports describing how the NL Central is by far the weakest division in baseball. He's right, too; he calculated the overall records of every division both for all of 2006 and against out-of-division opponents. In both cases, the NL Central was dead last by plenty. Don't believe that yet? Let's take a look at a few of the flaws for every team:

St. Louis Cardinals

Their corner outfielders are Chris Duncan and Juan Encarnacion.
Their stars (Pujols, Rolen, Edmonds) have all been injured recently.
They only have 2 experienced starters! (Carpenter and Kip Wells).

Houston Astros

Brad Ausmus.
Craig Biggio isn't getting any younger.
Outfield defense.
Who are our #4 and #5 starters?

Milwaukee Brewers

Can Bill Hall adjust to CF?
Will their bullpen suck again (Derrick Turnbow)?
Will Claudio Vargas be any good as a #5 starter?
Will Ben Sheets stay healthy?

Chicago Cubs

Their up-the-middle infielders are Cesar Izturis and Mark DeRosa.
Jason Marquis.
Can Alfonso Soriano play CF?

Cincinnati Reds

Will Ken Griffey Jr. stay healthy? (NO.)
Can Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo really be that good?
Alex Gonzalez and Brandon Phillips up the middle?

Pittsburgh Pirates

Will any of their young pitchers be good?
Who supplies the offense besides Bay / Sanchez? (Possibly LaRoche?)
Their bullpen...any good?

All the teams certainly have a lot of flaws. Like Andy has mentioned in the past, I really like the Brewers this year. The Cardinals still have Pujols, the Cubs have plenty of offense, etc. I honestly think the Astros' main undoing will be their outfield defense. It's going to be BAD. If I had to guess how the division finishes, I'd go Brewers / Cubs / Cardinals / Astros / Reds / Pirates.

P.S. Arizona baseball fans are getting pretty excited about their Diamondbacks. And why shouldn't they? Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Carlos Quentin, Conor Jackson, Brandon Webb...oh, and the oldest guy in that group is Webb. He'll be 28 in May. Oh yeah, and they have some guy named Randy Johnson now too.

Hello, everyone out there in InternetLand. Not too much news to report, other than the fact that Richard Justice is a moron. Way to call all of your "readers" idiots, Dick. Real classy. Apparently he was fed up of his "readers" complaining about Ausmus and Everett being useless. Justice wrote that if fans don't appreciate the value of those two players, then the fans are stupid. First off, as a fellow Internet writer, I really don't like it when bloggers get all uppity and start to talk down to their readers. But calling them idiots? That's a new low, Dick.

But enough ranting. Yes, Everett and Ausmus are valuable. Defensivel, they are second-to-none. They save tens of runs for our pitching staff, and they are great team leaders on defense. On offense, the two combine for one of the weakest combinations this side of the Washington Nationals. So their value is almost entirely one-sided. It's like an ultimate player who can can out-run and out-jump everyone he plays against. He gets layout Ds at will and completely shuts down anyone he's guarding. Tiny problem: he can't throw or catch.

Let's see here, what else is going on? Apparently Qualls is feeling a little shoulder stiffness, but I don't think it's anything to worry about.

Garner told reporters in Kissimmee what his Opening Day lineup will be. It's the same one he announced at Astros Fan Fest: Biggio, Burke, Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott/Lane/Hidalgo, Everett, Ausmus, Oswalt. Can't be too happy about Bidge leading off, but if it gets him to 3,000 hits any faster

Oh, I saw the Fightin' Texas Aggies take down UT-Arlington tonight. It was my first game at Olsen field in College Station, and it was definitely one of the most interesting games I've ever been to. Crazy Aggies, with their crazy cheers and whoops and making fun of the pitchers and coaches. Good think they didn't see me talking on my phone — I woulda gotten heckled. I'm discovering how much I like college baseball. These kids are good: the defense is generally sound, the pitching is relatively controlled and the kids can crush!

Bought Explosions in the Sky's new album, called "All of a Sudden I Miss Everyone." My first impression is that it can't touch 2003's "The Earth Is Not a Cold Dead Place," but I'll give it a few more spins. It's not as clean as "The Earth", but "All of a Sudden" adds some more experimentation, and the piano is new. My favorite track so far is "Catatrophe and the Cure."

Hello, everyone out there in InternetLand. Not too much news to report, other than the fact that Richard Justice is a moron. Way to call all of your "readers" idiots, Dick. Real classy. Apparently he was fed up of his "readers" complaining about Ausmus and Everett being useless. Justice wrote that if fans don't appreciate the value of those two players, then the fans are stupid. First off, as a fellow Internet writer, I really don't like it when bloggers get all uppity and start to talk down to their readers. But calling them idiots? That's a new low, Dick.

But enough ranting. Yes, Everett and Ausmus are valuable. Defensivel, they are second-to-none. They save tens of runs for our pitching staff, and they are great team leaders on defense. On offense, the two combine for one of the weakest combinations this side of the Washington Nationals. So their value is almost entirely one-sided. It's like an ultimate player who can can out-run and out-jump everyone he plays against. He gets layout Ds at will and completely shuts down anyone he's guarding. Tiny problem: he can't throw or catch.

Let's see here, what else is going on? Apparently Qualls is feeling a little shoulder stiffness, but I don't think it's anything to worry about.

Garner told reporters in Kissimmee what his Opening Day lineup will be. It's the same one he announced at Astros Fan Fest: Biggio, Burke, Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott/Lane/Hidalgo, Everett, Ausmus, Oswalt. Can't be too happy about Bidge leading off, but if it gets him to 3,000 hits any faster

Oh, I saw the Fightin' Texas Aggies take down UT-Arlington tonight. It was my first game at Olsen field in College Station, and it was definitely one of the most interesting games I've ever been to. Crazy Aggies, with their crazy cheers and whoops and making fun of the pitchers and coaches. Good think they didn't see me talking on my phone — I woulda gotten heckled. I'm discovering how much I like college baseball. These kids are good: the defense is generally sound, the pitching is relatively controlled and the kids can crush!

Bought Explosions in the Sky's new album, called "All of a Sudden I Miss Everyone." My first impression is that it can't touch 2003's "The Earth Is Not a Cold Dead Place," but I'll give it a few more spins. It's not as clean as "The Earth", but "All of a Sudden" adds some more experimentation, and the piano is new. My favorite track so far is "Catatrophe and the Cure."

Great day. My roommate Chris and I went to the batting cages to get ready for our slow-pitch co-ed D-league softball season that starts next week. Man, those pitches come slow. You gotta WAIT! Afterwards, we went back home and tossed the baseball around. My right arm has been pretty banged up since I ran into David Pillar playing ultimate three weekends ago. But it's feeling better, and I should be 100 percent by our first game on Thursday. I'm really excited, especially because I'm the captain/coach, so I get to do the lineup and fielding positions. The key is the girls: There has to be a girl in the battery, two girls in the infield and two in the outfield. Ideally, we'll have a girl who can catch at first base.

While I'm getting ready for softball, the Astros are slowly getting ready for spring training. Here are the most important things to watch for this spring:

• Who's starting? After Oswalt, Jennings and Williams, we have two question marks. Garner said a few days ago that Wandy has the experience, and his 19-20 record in his two years is decent. Well I got some not-so-pretty numbers for you, Phil: 5.58 and 1.53, Wandy's career ERA and WHIP. I don't want that. Chris Sampson, Fernando Nieve, Matt Albers, Dave Borkowski, Brian Moehler and Zeke Astacio will be considered for starting spots. I like Sampson, Nieve and Albers, but their major-league experience is minimal.

• How's Burke doing in center? He'll obviously be playing there constantly, and it will be interesting to see how he's doing on adjusting his routes and making long throws. I saw another blog discussing the best outfield "arms" in 2006. The dude got stats on every outfield throwing situation: "holds" and "kills" on runners advancing from first to third on a single; trying to score from second on a single; trying to score from first on a double; etc. And Willy Taveras had by far the best "arm" of major-league centerfielders. His kill rate was ridiculous, and his hold percentage was not spectacular but still above-average. The blogger's assumption was that since Taveras was still relatively young, more coaches and baserunners tested him arm. I can remember a couple of assists at home plate, and I generally held Willy T in high regard when it came to his arm, but I didn't think he was top in the league! I assume runners will be testing Burke's arm this year, too, so hopefully he can hold his own out there.

• Who wins the Lane vs. Hidalgo battle? There's just not enough room to carry both of them. Hidalgo is clearly the sentimental favorite, but Lane has been working hard this offseason to earn his spot on the spring. Hidalgo had a monster winter league in Venezuela, while Lane shat the bed. Hidalgo has the better arm in right field, but Lane *supposedly* can play center, which might be important if we don't carry Bruntlett.

• How can we possibly carry 12 pitchers? Garner says he needs 12, but I don't see why. He overuses his main relievers anyway, and the Astros got rid of Russ Springer specifically because they said he couldn't pitch multiple innings. Oswalt, Jennings and Williams are locks in the rotation, and Lidge, Wheeler, Qualls and Miller are locks in the pen. If, say, Albers and Nieve are the fourth and fifth starters, we could carry Borkowski and Sampson as the spot starter/mop-up guys. That would seem to work, at least for the first few months of the season.

The reason I'm against 12 pitchers is because of our bench. After our starters (Biggio, Burke, Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, Everett, Ausmus ... in some order), we'll have either 5 or 6 bench spots. Lamb, Loretta, Palmeiro and a backup catcher (see below) are locks for the bench. If we carry 12 pitchers, that leaves exactly one bench spot left between Hidalgo, Lane and Bruntlett. See what I'm getting at here?

Bruntlett's versatility, particularly his ability to play CF and SS well, make him practically necessary on the roster. If he doesn't make the team, who'd play center when Burke rests? Who'd play short to spell Everett? Burke and Everett won't play everyday, and I do NOT like the idea of Lane in center or Loretta at short, even briefly. We'll have a better idea of the roster in a few weeks, but I can't see a way around carrying 11 pitchers. Maybe — and this is a long shot — we can release Palmeiro. I like him more than Jack does, because I think there is some value to a pinch-hitter who, if nothing else, will make contact. But he really is the weakest link on our bench, especially with Loretta as a contact specialist and Lamb as our lefty off the bench. Of course, we'd have to eat his 900K.

• Who's the backup catcher? We got Humberto Quintero, Hector Gimenez and Eric Munson. To be honest, I'm not too excited about any of them, especially Munson. He's got some pop, but he didn't exactly make the most of his opportunity last year. Oh, and his career line? That'd be .211/.286/.400. Stay away.

Humberto and Hector are both out of options, so whoever doesn't make the team out of ST will have to clear waivers before they can accept an assignment. Gimenez, 24, was OK at Round Rock in 2006, hitting .273/.331/.389 in 275 ABs. But he tore it up in Venezuela this winter, hitting .302/.377/.547 in 53 ABs. He's a switch-hitter, and I think his defense is decent.

Quintero is older (27) but has a better track record. He posted an .800 OPS in 200 ABs at Round Rock in 2005 before getting 59 mostly worthless ABs for the Astros that year. He followed that up with a .298/.352/.425 line in 292 ABs at Round Rock in 2006 before going 7-for-21 with the Astros in the fall. Q also performed well in Venezuela, hitting .302/.324/.475 in 139 ABs. PECOTA lists him with a +7 defensive rating, which is about as high as they go.

So it's hard to say who we should hold onto. Neither appears to be any sort of long-term solution, but both could serve as an adequate transition from the Ausmus years to the J.R. Towles/Max Sapp generation. I think both Quintero and Gimenez are capable of posting a .270/.330/.400 line in 100-200 ABs, which is a hell of a lot better than Ausmus' line. Gimenez's age makes me think he could improve with time, but Quintero's defense and track record make him pretty attractive. Either way, this is probably the least important decision the Astros will make this spring.

I can't even begin to tell you how excited I am about baseball right now.

And to make me even happier, The Houston Chronicle reports that Tim Purpura has discussed a contract extension with Jason Jennings' agent. This is great news. Jennings will make $5.5 million this year, and I think Purpura is open to the idea of paying him more this year in order to lock him up for 2-3 more years. I doubt Jennings will want to settle for 4 years, $40 million, given what Gil Meche and Ted Lilly made this offseason. But I really hope that they keep the communication lines open. After trading Jason Hirsh for him, I'd really like to see Jennings as an Astro through 2010.

How awesome is 'The Office'?

I think Phil Garner is a pretty decent in-game manager, and I also think he does a pretty good job of getting his players ready to play. Every now and then, though, he lets loose with something like:

"Those guys have not had more success," manager Phil Garner says in response to fans who believe the righthanded candidates have better major league track records than Rodriguez. "Wandy's won (19) games in the big leagues. ERA can be deceptive. Some of those guys' ERAs are better. The bottom line is, do you win? If you have a 10 ERA and win more games than you lose, to me that's what counts.

"Yeah, it may put a strain, but something should be said for somebody who wins. In two years, he's won ballgames for us here."

Rodriguez was 9-10 with a 5.64 ERA last season over 24 starts and six relief appearances a year after going 10-10 with a 5.53 ERA.

Ugh.

I was browsing our archives today, and found some gems from the past two offsesasons. Back then, we did a bit more speculating, and most of it was complete garbage. Stuff like, "Trade Tim Redding and Raul Chavez for Mike Cameron." Obviously, we didn't know what we were talking about. Anyway, check this baby out:

Tuesday, February 22, 2005, posted by Jack:

My dream world:
Astros trade Taylor Bucholz to the Phillies for Placido Polanco.
Astros trade Jason Lane to the Mets for Mike Cameron.
Astros trade Brooks Conrad and Luke Scott to the Red Sox for BH Kim.
Ezequiel Astacio starts off in a middle relief role, excels, and becomes the 5th starter when the Astros sell high on Brandon Backe by trading him to the Reds for Austin Kearns.

* Good idea about Lane-for-Cameron. BAD idea about Scott and Conrad for Kim. I don't think Kim's been very good in Colorado. I'm sure he gets plenty of striekouts, but not too many wins. And how high were we on Zeke Astacio? That guy SUCKS now.

Happy Valentine's Day, everyone. More importantly, pitchers and catchers can start early spring training tomorrow!

The Astros have been busy inviting a lot of washed-up pitchers to spring training (Rick White, Scott Sauerbeck, Kelly Wunsch, Ben Weber) and 'flirting' with Steve Trachsel (he gets HAMMERED by righties; he would be a terrible fit at MMP). Let's look at what Baseball Prospectus's projection genius PECOTA thinks of the Astros pitchers:

Roy Oswalt: 213.0 IP, 3.67 ERA (seems like a high ERA, but he's thrown a LOT of innings)
Jason Jennings: 180.0 IP, 4.24 ERA (we certainly need a #2 like this, but he's no Pettitte)
Woody Williams: 116.0 IP, 4.79 ERA (flyball pitcher in MMP: yikes.)
Fernando Nieve: 72.7 IP, 4.51 ERA (pretty good, considering age)
Wandy Rodriguez: 56.7 IP, 5.74 ERA (not good)
Chris Sampson: 94.0 IP, 4.61 ERA (pretty good, considering age)

All in all, the starters look pretty mediocre after Roy O. Jennings should eat innings, but Woody and Wandy are both pretty bad. Hopefully Woody can do a little better than that, and Nieve / Sampson / Albers / Patton replace Wandy, who is not a major league starter.

Brad Lidge: 65.3 IP, 3.34 ERA (nice comeback)
Dan Wheeler: 54.3 IP, 3.61 ERA (kinda high, but can he really be this good?)
Chad Qualls: 60.0 IP, 3.91 ERA (looks about right)
Trever Miller: 44.7 IP, 3.87 ERA (one or Purpura's best signings)
Paul Estrada: 59.0 IP, 4.30 ERA (high K rate, young)

Pretty decent bullpen! No one is dominant, but that's a solid 5-some to build a pen around.

Baseball Prospectus also ranked all the farm systems for the major league teams. The Astros finished 28th out of 30, with only Hunter Pence and Troy Patton as good prospects. Unfortunately, I have to agree, especially when some of our best prospects (Brooks Conrad) are left to waste in the minors. Having Berkman and Oswalt around for 5 more years will certainly help, but if we want to be competitive in the division for the short-term, we desperately need some good drafts in the next year or two. A good CF or SS offensive prospect would be a godsend.

Andy, great posts lately.

I'd probably feel more comfortable right now if I were a Brewers fan. At least they have a solid rotation. Sure, Ben Sheets has injury concerns, but look at their starting 5: Sheets, Capuano, Dave Bush, Suppan and Claudio Vargas. Pretty sick.

Almost every teams has 4 or 5 huge questions to answer before the season starts. Most are something like this: "If ________ pitches 200 innings, we'll contend." Or "If ________ can improve his numbers against lefties, we'll win the division." The Brewers' ifs are looking like pretty decent bets to me. The biggest one, obviously, is Sheets' health. No other team is relying so much on one player's health (excluding Carpenter).

• Can Sheets can stay healthy and make 25+ starts?
• Can Dave Bush can finally have that break-out year?
• Can their middle infielders can stay healthy?
• Can Prince and Bill Hall at least match their 2006 numbers?
• Will Jenkins and Mench realize that they don't have to hit a lot of homers to carry the team?
• Is Cordero is the answer at closer, and Turnbow can bounce back in a set-up role?

If most of these are answered in the affirmative, the Brewers will not only contend, but they'd be the favorites for the division. I'd say that most of those questions are attainable for the Brew Crew. Bush has looked good, but his career ERA (4.28) is a bit higher than you'd expect from his career WHIP (1.19). He can keep runners off base, but if he can stop those runners from scoring once they get on, he could be an All-Star. Even if their middle infielders Weeks and Hardy get hurt, the team has pretty darn good back-ups with Graffanino and Counsell. Prince and Hall are pretty good bets for a combined 55 homers and 170 RBI.

The Astros' questions are a lot more, well, questionable:

• Can Lidge and Ensberg can bounce back?
• Can Burke be able to handle centerfield?
• Will Luke Scott rake for a full year while playing right field?
• How will Jennings perform outside of Coors Field?
• Who the hell starts after Oswalt, Jennings and Williams?

We shall see. I really think both Lidge and Ensberg can produce, and produce well. Maybe not at their 2005 levels of domination, but they can still be among the top 10 players in baseball in their respective positions.

I think Burke can and will make the most of his opportunity. I think he'll excel at hitting high in the order, getting on base and smacking lots of doubles. My concern is his defense and his shoulder. Once you dislocate a shoulder, the odds of doing it again skyrocket. One awkward dive or another running crash into a wall, and he could be out for the year.

Luke Scott will be fine. Obviously, he won't hit .340 or slug .700, but he'll be just fine. And he'll be best suited for a platoon role, which I hope and suspect will be implemented.

I've said before that Jennings is something of a sure thing. We can pencil him in for 200 innings and a 3.50-4.50 ERA. I think this is generally true, but maybe he's more of a wild-card than that. Thing is, I can see him going nuts and winning 17 games. With Everett to scoop up all the grounders he produces, he can pitch some outstanding games against weak lineups in the NL Central. Keep in mind that it's his contract year. Of course, it's possible that for whatever reason, things simply don't click in Houston. He might not adjust well to sea-level. Ha. Anyway, much of the team's success hinges on his ability to replace Pettitte in the rotation.

Ah, the fourth and fifth starters. Who knows? At this point, we can only hope that someone establishes themselves. Sampson, Nieve, Albers? C'mon. Wandy, Moehler? Ugh. This is not a good position to be in, and everyone in the organization knows it. Clemens is no sure by any stretch of the imagination, so we MUST be looking at adding depth. I'm still in favor of getting a hold of Mark Redman. He's a better bet than Wandy for 2007 or any other year. If we can get him on a minor-league deal, we HAVE to do it. Have to.

I just got My Morning Jacket's double-disc live record, Okonokos. Phenomenal. And I'm going to see Explosions in the Sky in a couple weeks. Life is good.

It's official: Baseball season is upon us.

The rents and I drove down to Minute Maid today to watch Vanderbilt play in the Houston College Classic and to check out the Astros Fan Fest going on around the park.

Vandy beat ASU on the most ridiculous game-ending play I have ever seen. It was an exciting, well-coached and well-played game throughout. The Sun Devils started hot, just like they did against Texas A&M on Friday. It was 3-0 before we even found our seats (which were incredible: 12 rows behind the home dugout). After a few futile innings against ASU's crafty lefty, Vandy scored a couple in the 3rd and 4th. I missed a few of the middle innings because I was listening to Drayton, Phil, Tim and Milo talk Astros, which was insightful and HILARIOUS! (Much more on this later…).

Vandy thirdbaseman (and future All-Star) Pedro Alvarez crushed a two-run bomb in the seventh to put Vandy up 6-5. But ASU came right back with a somewhat controversial run in the top of the eighth: With runners on second and third and one out, RF/P Ike Davis lined a hot shot into center. Vandy CF David Macias made a spectacular diving play coming straight in. It was a questionable catch, though, as all the ASU fans were saying it was a trap. Macias held up his glove to signal the catch; meanwhile, the Sun Devil's leadoff man, 2B Eric Sogard, scampered home from third for the tying run. This was also questionable: All the Vandy fans thought he tagged much too early. They tried to check at third, but the appeal was denied. In either case, It really was bang-bang in both places, the catch and the tag-up, so I think the umps got it right.

Vandy almost won it in the bottom of the ninth. With runners on first and second and one out, the ASU thirdbasemen made a great diving grab on a sharp grounder from RF Dominic de la Osa, then had the agility to get up, step on third (he was playing close to the lne to prevent a double), and throw to first for the double play. Great move.

Meanwhile, Vandy closer Casey Weathers mowed down the Sun Devils in the 9th and 10th. Oh, and it was getting pretty late in the day: The Houston-A&M game was supposed to start at 3:30 p.m., but the bottom of the 10th was just getting started around 4 p.m. I figured if Vandy didn't score in the 10th, the umps would have called it a tie.

Luckily, they did score. With one out, Candy DH Matt Menigasner smacked a ball into the gap in left-center. It rolled all the way to the bullpen under the fuel pump, and Meingasner high-tailed it into third. Vandy put pinch-runner on third, and ASU decided to walk the next batter, 1B Brad French. Don't know if they were going to walk one more to load the bases. And I guess we'll never know …

ASU had brought in their huge RF, Ike Davis, to pitch in the 9th inning. He induced the double-play to third. But apparently big Ike isn't known for his command, as he sailed an intentional ball over the catcher's head! Pinch-runner Jonathan White broke for home as ASU catcher Petey Paramore collected the wild pitch and fired it in to Davis covering home. It was CLOSE at home, but White's head-frist slide barely beat Davis' tag. What an ending! Unbelieveable. Incredible. And the best.

Right, so I should mention meeting the Astros brass. I actually didn't know Purpura, McLane, Garner and Milo were going to be discussing the Astros in the left-field concourse; I was walking around looking for programs for the college games. But I hear some dudes with microphones and — Bam — there they are. Milo was nuts as usual, tellng several crazy stories about players and other personnel. He referred to Carlos Lee as Carlos May, and asked if Garner was going to carry 10 or 11 pitchers. But hey, Milo's the coolest, so I let it slide. I took some notes on my cell-phone during their talk, and here's what they had to say:

• They're all excited about Burke finally getting a chance to play a whole season. Garner said "Burke's gonna play all the time" in center.

• Garner can't say enough about Carlos May — er — Lee. He said Lee is the type of player who knows the situation every time he comes to the plate. He's not always thinking about hitting a home run. If there's a way to drive in a run — sometimes without getting a hit — Carlos knows how to do it. Garner mentioned that it's no coincidence that he's driven in 100+ runs all those years. Sure, he's hit in the middle of potent orders, but it takes a certain type of player to know HOW to drive in runs. I guess I see his point.

• Milo told the most HILARIOUS story I've heard about the Stros in a long time. Milo accompanied the team on its caravan acros southeast Texas. They stopped by Temple, Round Rock, College Station (unfortunately, I didn't have time to go). Anyway, they stopped at Fort Hood and a few of them tried their hand at the tank similuators they run for soldiers there. Milo was the tank driver for Brandon Backe. Watch out, insurgents. So they're driving around in this simulation, looking for enemies (in red) while trying to protect their teammates (in white). "Well, I be durned if that Luke Scott isn't colorblind," Milo says. "Brandon and I get obliterated, and we don't know why. So we get out of the simulator, and Luke Scott has the biggest grin on his face. He's gone and killed us all!" Oh, man. That Luke Scott. Good thing he carries around a gun with him.

• Garner and Purpura are real excited about Matt Albers. Say that he's made a turning point in his professional career. That he wasn't fully committed to baseball, but now he's developed a strong work ethic and great attitude and will make a fine addition to the Astros clubhouse. They mentioned he was in the running for the 4th and 5th starter positions, along with Nieve, Sampson and Moehler. (They didn't mention Wandy's name!)

• Milo made fun of Drayton's high-school basketball days in Temple. Says they stopped by the historic gym where Drayton played. "And saw the bench where he sat during every game." Oh, Milo.

• Garner said Lincoln Holdzkom is humongous. Like he's got football pads on his shoulders. And he was hitting the high 90s.

• Alyson Footer is pretty cute. Just thought I'd throw that one in there.

• Oh, Tim said he'd "lifted the viel" on Garner even thinking about Troy Patton. Garner apparently has a man-crush on the big lefty, and with good reason. Garner said when he was managing Los Tigres, Patton was a better pitcher in high-school than the entire Tigers pitching staff. Ouch. Patton and Pence were invited to major-league spring training in Kissimmee. It's doubtful either will make the opening-day roster, but it will be a good chance to see how they handle major-league competition.

• Drayton assured the fans that Biggio would get his 3,000th hit at home. Garner also mentioned that Biggio would get more rest throughout the season, with many of his off-days coming on the road. Good thinking, Phil.

• Milo screamed "Santo Toledo" a few times. That was fun.

• Tim and Phil expressed their fondness of Hidalgo. Tim recalled personally wheeling Hidalgo in a wheelchair outside the brand-new Enron Field after Hidalgo had broken a bone in his hand. Tim also said that Hidalgo's one of the classiest, most humble people in baseball, and he was so proud of his comeback. It sounds like everyone in the organization is rooting for him. Sorry, Jason.

• Garner said if the season started today, he would carry 12 pitchers. 'I just don't see any way we can't carry 12," he said. Hmm. A little math: 12 pitchers, 8 starting position players. That leaves 5 bench players: Lamb, Palmeiro, Loretta, back-up catcher (Quintero/Gimenez). So basically, there's one spot left for Bruntlett, Lane and Hidalgo. Yikes. My vote's for Hidalgo, but who can play center if Burke goes down? Can Luke Scott shift over with Hidalgo in RF? Who knows.

• Garner said his opening-day line-up is this: Biggio, Burke, Berkman, Lee, Ensberg, Scott, Everett, Ausmus, Oswalt. Meh.

• Finally, I get up to the microphone during the Q&A session. I ask 2 questions for everyone: 1) How do yall feel about Hunter Pence and Brooks Conrad, and 2) What's to be done about the catching situation (i.e. how can we get more offensive production there). In response to the first question, Tim and Phil talk for a few minutes about Pence and how Bagwell says he's gonna be the next big thing. The next generation funky-swinger. No one even mentions Brooks Conrad. In response to the second, Phil says he was really impressed by one guy at the pitchers and catchers mini-camp last week. It wasn't Quintero. Or Gimenez or J.R. Towles. It was 2006 first-round pick Max Sapp. First of all, great name. But Garner went on about how this guy is the real deal. He can throw, hit for average and power, and is generally a great guy. So ... yeah. Garner also mentioned that one of the hardest things to do in baseball was to develop and keep great catchers. That it really is the most unique position in the game. With which I concur.

I guess that's all the good stuff. We stayed for the first few innings of the A&M-Houston game, but left in the third. What a day. the Juicebox looks great, although the 'Eat Mor Fowl' signs on the foul poles look pretty stupid. Oh, we saw Jason Lane and Charlton Jimerson signing autographs. And Bagwell was doing a photo-shoot for half an hour. He looked pretty good. All in all, a great day. I picked up a copy of Baseball America magazine, and they rank the NL Central's farm system. I'll have to post about that tomorrow.

Missed the Astros caravan in College Station this week. Probably didn't have time to stand in line for a few hours anyway — I've been swamped at work all week.

Baseball Prospectus has ranked their top five second basemen for 2007 in VORP:
Chase Utley, 49.0
Ray Durham, 38.7
Eric Patterson, 34.9
Brooks Conrad, 29.2
Jeff Kent, 28.2

Free Brooks Conrad! Dude went .267/.334/.534 and led the PCL in extra-base hits. His .334 OBP was actually worse than 2004 or 2005, but he's clearly superior than Biggio or Loretta, and probably Burke, too. BP rates his defense fairly high; I wonder if we can try him at short and make him our utility guy in place of Eric Bruntlett.

Going to the Houston College Classic this weekend. Vandy beat Rice 7-3 this afternoon, scoring all its runs in the 6th inning or later. Nice job, Dores. Tomorrow, Vandy vs. ASU and A&M vs. Houston. And if we're crazy enough to try the triple-header, Rice vs. Baylor. But we'll see. I can't wait to see The Juicebox. I bet it's looking might fine these days.

The Astros have been busy inviting a lot of washed-up pitchers to spring training (Rick White, Scott Sauerbeck, Kelly Wunsch, Ben Weber) and 'flirting' with Steve Trachsel (he gets HAMMERED by righties; he would be a terrible fit at MMP). Let's look at what Baseball Prospectus's projection genius PECOTA thinks of the Astros pitchers:

Roy Oswalt: 213.0 IP, 3.67 ERA (seems like a high ERA, but he's thrown a LOT of innings)
Jason Jennings: 180.0 IP, 4.24 ERA (we certainly need a #2 like this, but he's no Pettitte)
Woody Williams: 116.0 IP, 4.79 ERA (flyball pitcher in MMP: yikes.)
Fernando Nieve: 72.7 IP, 4.51 ERA (pretty good, considering age)
Wandy Rodriguez: 56.7 IP, 5.74 ERA (not good)
Chris Sampson: 94.0 IP, 4.61 ERA (pretty good, considering age)

All in all, the starters look pretty mediocre after Roy O. Jennings should eat innings, but Woody and Wandy are both pretty bad. Hopefully Woody can do a little better than that, and Nieve / Sampson / Albers / Patton replace Wandy, who is not a major league starter.

Brad Lidge: 65.3 IP, 3.34 ERA (nice comeback)
Dan Wheeler: 54.3 IP, 3.61 ERA (kinda high, but can he really be this good?)
Chad Qualls: 60.0 IP, 3.91 ERA (looks about right)
Trever Miller: 44.7 IP, 3.87 ERA (one or Purpura's best signings)
Paul Estrada: 59.0 IP, 4.30 ERA (high K rate, young)

Pretty decent bullpen! No one is dominant, but that's a solid 5-some to build a pen around.

Baseball Prospectus also ranked all the farm systems for the major league teams. The Astros finished 28th out of 30, with only Hunter Pence and Troy Patton as good prospects. Unfortunately, I have to agree, especially when some of our best prospects (Brooks Conrad) are left to waste in the minors. Having Berkman and Oswalt around for 5 more years will certainly help, but if we want to be competitive in the division for the short-term, we desperately need some good drafts in the next year or two. A good CF or SS offensive prospect would be a godsend.

Andy, great posts lately.

Long time, no post. Only 50+ days til Opening Day!

Since we last posted, the Astros have made several minor moves. Really, though, it's the minor moves that can make the difference between an 85-win season and a 90-win season. So let's check 'em out:

• Signed Richard Hidalgo to a minor-league contract. Nothing is guaranteed, but in my mind this is a fantastic low-risk, high-reward move that Purpura is so adept at making. (Remember Preston Wilson? We *only* gave him $4 million for one-year. He was coming off a decent year, and the potential was there for him to have another good one as an Astro. Things obviously didn't work out, though, so it didn't hurt too bad for us to dump him).

Hidalgo's in a similar situation. He has reportedly slimmed down and gotten in great shape. I saw a YouTube video of him crushing the ball down in Venezuela. I'll admit it sent shivers down my spine. He looks good.

Clearly, Luke Scott has earned the starting gig in right field. It's his job to lose. But no one's holding their breath for another 1.000-OPS year from the lefty. He'll likely regress … I have him down for .275/.360/.500, which is damn good. Luke did "struggle" against lefties last year, hitting .240/.397/.380 against southpaws. So a platoon is in order.

In my mind, Hidalgo is battling Lane to be the right-handed platoon partner for Scott. Hidalgo has the defensive advantage of having an absolute cannon, but Lane has the advantage of, well, playing in the majors in 2006. Sort of.

As good as Hidalgo was in 2000 and 2003, keep in mind that he's averaged .230/.300/.435 from 2004 on. Not pretty. Still, his career line is .269/.345/.490, and he's only 31! So there is hope that his comeback is for real — that he's lost enough weight to regain bat speed and crush the ball. The Lane-Hidalgo battle will be decided in spring training, so they better brign their A-games to Kissimmee. Hidalgo will make $850K if he makes the big-league squad.

• Signed all of our arbitration-eligible players to one-year deals, making it a full decade since the last hearing. Our lack of arbitration hearings doesn't have anything to do with on-field performance, but it's nice to see that we're keeping up our reputation as a classy organization.

Lamb signed for $2.7 million, Lidge $5.35 million, Lane $1.05 million, Everett $2.8 million and Ensberg $4.35 million. Despite an awful 2005, Lamb was very productive last year, hiting .307/.361/.475. More importantly, he probably increased Garry Matthews' salary by several million: Lamb hit the would-be homer that Matthews snagged over his shoulder at Ameriquest Field for what was surely the play of the year. Lamb will be a free agent after 2007.

Lidge was obviously a disappointment in 2006, but it was encouraging to see him working out with Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens at last week's Nolan Ryan Elite pitching camp. Ryan apparently called Lidge in person to invite him. Nolan wanted to work on Lidge's mechanics, which seemed to fall apart. Lidge would often 'fly open' in his wind-up, leaving his pitches up. He often could not handle his fastball, which led to a career-high in walks. The stuff is still there, as evidenced by his still-ridiculous strikeout totals. But if he can regain his command, he'll bounce back in 2007.

This was Lane's first year of arbitration, and it might well be his last with the Astros. I almost feel bad for him: He rides the pine for years, waiting for his chance. He puts up an .815 OPS and hits 27 homers in 2005, but he gets blasted for not taking any walks. So he triples his walk rate only his average and slugging drop off the map. Basically, he can't do anything right. I still think he can be useful — he's OK on defense, and can supposedly play center. But I don't see him as an Astro if Hidalgo turns in a good spring.

Everett and Ensberg, like Lidge, will be free agents after 2008. They both settled for less than the midpoint between their arbitration exchanges. And from what I read in the Chronicle, they're both really excited. Everett to keep playnig spectacular defense and possibly put up a .700 OPS (please?), Ensberg to rebound after his injury-plagued power outage last year. Ensberg's a big component in the success of the team. Whether he bats 2nd or 5th or 6th, he'll be an important contributor for both his patience and his power. I have faith that he can produce. Something along the lines of .280/.380/.500 would be awesome.

• Signed Brian Moehler to a minor-league contract and invited him to spring training. Moehler had four decent years as a starter in Detroit from 1997-2000, averaging 190 innings with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. Since injuries struck, though, he hasn't done much, but I suppose there's hope he can regain his innings-eating ways. 180 innings of 4.80 ERA from the fifth starter is fine by me. He's in the mix for the two open rotation spots along with Wandy, Nieve, Sampson and Albers.

• Signed a bunch of relievers: RHP Rick White, LHP Scott Sauerbeck, RHP Ben Weber and LHP Kelly Wunsch to minor-league contracts. Sauerbeck and White, not from Houston, get invites to major-league spring training. Weber and Wunsch, Houston natives, do not. Not real sure what to make of any of these guys … They're not good but even if they make the club, they won't have much of an impact anyway.

White has been serviceable in his career, but ERAs over 5 in three of the last four years make me question his value.

Sauerbeck has been good against lefties in his career: They've hit .199/.304/.333 against him. Problem is, he's just no good against righties, to the tune of .275/.401/.385. Yikes. Garner likes having two lefties in the pen, though, so we'll see ...

All I know about Weber is his ridiculous wind-up. He was surprisingly good for the Angels from 01-03, putting up ERAs of 3.42, 2.54 and 2.69 in 68.1, 78.0 and 80.3 IP, respectively. He hasn't done much since

Wunsch has been derailed by injuries the past 3 years, but he's had three decent years in the White Sox pen. He's even better than Sauerbeck against lefties (.185/.296/.266), plus he went to Texas A&M. He's the most likely to contribute as an Astro, but only if he can stay healthy. I hope he can.

So not too much going on, although I am getting PUMPEd for baseball to start. The Super Bowl was decent. WE had a ton of food at the house and I ate just about all of it. So that was good.

Oh, the folks and I might go down to The Juicebox this weekend for the Houston College Classic. Rice, Vanderbilt, Arizona State, Houston, Baylor and Texas A&M will all be there for the round-robin-style tournament. It should be fun.

Later, losers.